Heuristics and cognitive biases as a reason of external audit failures

The Cognitive Reflection Test as a predictor of performance on heuristics-and-biases tasks.

The Cognitive Reflection Test (CRT; Frederick, 2005) is designed to measure the tendency to override a prepotent response alternative that is incorrect and to engage in further reflection that leads to the correct response. In this study, we showed that the CRT is a more potent predictor of performance on a wide sample of tasks from the heuristics-and-biases literature than measures of cognitiv...

Laplace ’ s theories of cognitive illusions , heuristics , and biases ∗ Joshua

In his book from the early 1800s, Essai Philosophique sur les Probabilités, the mathematician Pierre-Simon de Laplace anticipated many ideas developed in the 1970s in cognitive psychology and behavioral economics, explaining human tendencies to deviate from norms of rationality in the presence of probability and uncertainty. A look at Laplace’s theories and reasoning is striking, both in how mo...

How to Make Cognitive Illusions Disappear: Beyond “Heuristics and Biases”

Most so-called “errors” in probabilistic reasoning are in fact not violations of probability theory. Examples of such “errors” include overconfi dence bias, conjunction fallacy, and base-rate neglect. Researchers have relied on a very narrow normative view, and have ignored conceptual distinctions—for example, single case versus relative frequency—fundamental to probability theory. By recognizi...

Heuristics and Biases in Charity

We consider utilitarian models of altruism constrained by limited willingness to sacrifice self-interest. By these models donors should strive to maximize the good they do, within the constraint. We describe several departures from predictions of these models and provide new data on some of them, based on studies conducted on the World Wide Web. We find: people focus on minimizing operating cos...

Heuristics: Heuristics and Biases at the Bargaining Table